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Leading Economic Index increases in US

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in January to 99.5 (2004 = 100), following no change in December, and a 0.9 percent increase in November.

“The U.S. Leading Economic Index continues to fluctuate on a monthly basis, but the six-month average growth rate has been relatively stable in recent months,  which suggests that the economy will remain resilient in the first half of 2014 and underlying economic conditions should continue to improve,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “Correspondingly, the U.S. Coincident Economic Index, which measures current conditions, has continued rising steadily.”

“The increase in the Leading Economic Index reflects an economy that is expanding moderately, although the pace is somewhat held back by persistent and severe inclement weather in most parts of the country,” said Economist Ken Goldstein. “If the economy is going to move on to a faster track in 2014 compared to last year, consumer demand and especially investment will need to pick up significantly from their current trends.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in January to 108.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in December, and a 0.4 percent increase in November.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0 more helpful hints.3 in January to 121.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in December, and no change in November.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
2013 2014  6-month
Nov Dec Jan Jul to Jan
Leading Index 99.2 r 99.2 r 99.5 p
  Percent Change 0.9 r 0.0 r 0.3 p 3.1
  Diffusion 70.0 40.0 60.0 75.0
Coincident Index 107.9 r 108.0 r 108.1 p
  Percent Change 0.4 0.1 r 0.1 p 1.3
  Diffusion 100.0 75.0 75.0 100.0
Lagging Index 120.7 r 121.2 121.6 p
  Percent Change 0.0 0.4 r 0.3 p 1.8
  Diffusion 35.7 71.4 78.6 50.0
n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board